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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It often acts as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest shock.

Yet the latest race is distinctly different. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and longtime also-rans improving in unison. Under an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and fun year, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

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